Online Bayesian Inference of a Stochastic Volatility Model

Introduction Electricity differs from many financial and commodity assets because large-scale storage remains expensive, requiring continuous balancing of supply and demand. In the UK day-ahead market, hourly electricity prices are determined through auctions that incorporate expected generation and demand, as well as transmission constraints. In Great Britain, this balance is overseen by the National Energy System Operator (NESO), which manages the grid through a combination of forward markets and a real-time Balancing Mechanism. A key feature of the UK energy market is the day-ahead auction, which is facilitated by two exchanges: EPEX SPOT and Nord Pool’s N2EX. ...

Published June 12, 2026 · Estimated reading time: 12 min

A Comparison of Statistical Models of Energy Spot Price in the UK

Introduction Electricity differs from many financial and commodity assets because large-scale storage remains expensive, requiring supply and demand to be balanced continuously. In the UK day-ahead market, hourly electricity prices are determined through auctions that incorporate expected generation, demand, and transmission constraints. In Great Britain, this balance is overseen by the National Energy System Operator (NESO), which manages the grid through a combination of forward markets and a real-time Balancing Mechanism. A key feature of the UK energy market is the day-ahead auction, which is facilitated by two exchanges: EPEX SPOT and Nord Pool’s N2EX. The auctions operate such that all successful buyers and sellers receive the same clearing price, despite the large difference in cost to produce electricity between renewable and non-renewable methods. The price is determined by the most expensive energy producer to be accepted for that period; this is called the marginal price. The spot prices today were, therefore, set in yesterday’s auctions. Both producers and suppliers commit to their positions a day ahead. ...

Published May 12, 2026 · Estimated reading time: 18 min

A Comparison of Stochastic Models of Energy Spot Price in the UK

Introduction Electricity differs from many financial and commodity assets because large-scale storage remains expensive, requiring supply and demand to be balanced continuously. In the UK day-ahead market, hourly electricity prices are determined through auctions that incorporate expected generation, demand, and transmission constraints. In Great Britain, this balance is overseen by the National Energy System Operator (NESO), which manages the grid through a combination of forward markets and a real-time Balancing Mechanism. A key feature of the UK energy market is the day-ahead auction, which is facilitated by two exchanges: EPEX SPOT and Nord Pool’s N2EX. The auctions operate such that all successful buyers and sellers receive the same clearing price, despite the large difference in cost to produce electricity between renewable and non-renewable methods. The price is determined by the most expensive energy producer to be accepted for that period; this is called the marginal price. The spot prices today were, therefore, set in yesterday’s auctions. Both producers and suppliers commit to their positions a day ahead. ...

Published May 12, 2026 · Estimated reading time: 26 min